The last decades have seen major advances in the prediction of large-scale phenomena also thanks to the use of coupled land, ocean and atmosphere models. Today, ECMWF uses coupled land, ocean and atmosphere models to generate medium-range and sub-seasonal forecasts. Coupled models are also used in data assimilation, to improve the estimation of past climate variability. In the next 10 years, ECMWF plans to further improve and exploit coupled models to extract predictable signals from its ensembles, and to improve the monitoring of the climate. In this talk, I will describe the operational coupled ensembles used at ECMWF, present our prototype coupled assimilation system, and show some preliminary results from the ECMWF coupled reanalysis of the 20th century.
Dr Roberto Buizza has a degree in Physics from the University of Milano, a PhD in Mathematics from University College London, and an MBA from the London Business School. He joined ECMWF in 1991, after 4 years at the Centre for Thermonuclear Research of the Electricity Board of Italy. Between 2011 and 2015 he served as Head of the Predictability Division, and since January 2016 he is a Lead Scientist of the ECMWF Research Department. His role includes coordinating research and development work in data assimilation, reanalysis and predictability. He is a member of the ECMWF Senior Management team, responsible for Research-to-Operation work, and coordinator of the ERA-CLIM2 EU FP7 project. He has more than 100 publications in peer-reviewed journals.